Former political adviser Jacqui Scruby appears to have captured the seat of Pittwater on Sydney's northern beaches after a by-election on Saturday.
It's another blow to the state Liberal party, which lost the seat for only the second time in 51 years, following the incumbent's arrest on child abuse charges and an administration debacle wiping out dozens of councillors in September's local elections.
Jacqui Scruby says the by-election swing shows growing trust in community-based candidates. (Luke Costin/AAP PHOTOS)
The Liberals are yet to concede defeat but admit it will be "extremely difficult" to defeat the independent candidate Ms Scruby, who is backed by the environment-focused political fundraiser Climate 200.
While not claiming victory either, Ms Scruby said the six per cent swing on the night showed the momentum for community-focused candidates.
"It's happened over years, not overnight," she told reporters on Sunday.
While the Liberals had had issues, "overwhelmingly, what we're seeing is people trust community-backed representation".
"They're witnessing it at a federal level, next door with (neighbouring state MP) Michael Regan and they're seeing what independents can do in NSW parliament. Legislation was passed this week by an independent."
High on her agenda are restoring funding cut by Labor for a major arterial road, and addressing rising insurance costs due to climate change.
The likely loss of Pittwater leaves the Liberal party with no federal MPs, one state MP and one councillor in an area once the mainstay of conservatives such as Tony Abbott and Bronwyn Bishop.
With 62 per cent of the vote counted on Saturday night, Ms Scruby held a 55.4 to 44.6 lead over Liberal candidate Georgia Ryburn on a two-candidate preferred basis.
"The path to victory in Pittwater now looks extremely difficult, even though counting continues," state Liberal leader Mark Speakman's office said.
The Liberals hope early voting, where Ms Scruby's lead is less than one per cent, and Liberal-leaning postal votes can shift dramatically for Ms Ryburn, a former deputy local mayor.
Ms Scruby led the Liberal candidate on election night in 2023, only for victory to slip through her fingers in later counting.
Liberal NSW leader Mark Speakman acknowledged the damage done in Pittwater by earlier scandals. (Dan Himbrechts/AAP PHOTOS)
But this time the margin is larger and Mr Speakman has acknowledged the harm of earlier scandals.
"The circumstances of the former member's resignation, and the disappointment of failure to nominate candidates in the Northern Beaches Council elections, have clearly had their toll," Mr Speakman's office said.
Saturday's poll was sparked by the arrest of sitting member Rory Amon over child abuse allegations, which he denies.
Labor and the Greens did not run in the by-election, with the teal candidate appearing to pick up a majority of those votes.
Ms Scruby, who has worked as an adviser for federal teal MPs Sophie Scamps and Zali Steggall, enjoyed strong support from Climate 200.
While the lobby group had previously backed two successful NSW campaigns, neither Wollondilly MP Judy Hannan nor incumbent Sydney MP Alex Greenwich ran under teal banners, making Ms Scruby the first teal on Macquarie Street.
Pittwater has only left Liberal hands once before, in a 2005 by-election that also marks the last time a NSW opposition lost a by-election.
Liberals however had success in two other by-elections on Saturday.
Triggered by the retirements of former premier Dominic Perrottet and former treasurer Matt Kean, the races for Epping and Hornsby were easily won by Monica Tudehope and James Wallace.
Both won on first preferences, albeit without a Labor opponent.
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