Region ‘primed’ for severe flooding

The BOM’s outlook for August to October has forecast above-average rainfall as a result of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole under way in Australia’s north-west, with a third consecutive La Nina weather pattern also likely.

Murray Darling Basin Authority’s River Management executive director Andrew Reynolds said the MDBA had been pre-releasing water from Hume Dam to create air-space since May, and had close to 250 gigalitres of airspace available to capture future inflows.

With already wet soils, high rivers and full dams, the forecast has local landholders on edge, with the flood level potential likely to be “higher than 2016”.

Chair of the Murray River Action Group Richard Sargood said landholders along the Murray River were very concerned.

“The reports and models are all saying the same thing, which means the flooding potential is worse than what we had in 2016,” Mr Sargood told the Free Press.

“We’ve still got two months to go, and Dartmouth Dam is already full, and Hume Dam is almost full. Once Dartmouth spills, we are in for some big flows.

“It’s a very scary situation. We are primed for disaster really.”

Mr Sargood said even average seasonal rainfall would result in significant flooding.

“We’ve got three months of this risk staring at us in the face,” he said.

“In 2016, over 100,000 megalitres a day was flowing past Corowa and there could quite easily be more this year.

“Back then, Dartmouth had no hope of spilling, whereas this year, Dartmouth will be a dead set certainty to spill and once that happens that will increase the area of catchment that will flow directly into Hume by 25 per cent.

“That means there is the potential to have to manage at 25 per cent more inflows than we had in 2016. It’s got the potential to get really, really ugly.”

Mr Sargood said while the Murray Darling Basin Authority had improved on their dam management since 2016 by increasing airspace, “they did let them get too full too quickly”.

“We do understand we live on a flood plain and we do get floods but there should be way better management in place to mitigate floods,” Mr Sargood said.

“Part of the operation procedures to Hume Dam say that they’re supposed to have the dam nearly full before demand exceed inflows and then where possible provide flood mitigation. But they treat those two conditions as being mutually exclusive.

“Every single landholder that has frontage to the Murray River or its tributaries will have plans in place to shift cattle, to put stock out on agistment, and to make sure there are no welfare issues, but it’s a really expensive exercise.

“Caravan Parks will have to pull caravans up, and tourists will stop coming because as soon as you mention flooding in the Murray River, tourists stop coming.”