Wet winter ahead

By Darren Linton

May 26, 2022

As rain fell across the region on Thursday the Bureau of Meteorology released the winter outlook, which forecasts more rain than normal.

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June to August rainfall is very likely to be above median for much of Australia, but below median for south-western Australia and western Tasmania.

The chance of below average rainfall in Shepparton is just one per cent, while there is an 84 per cent chance of exceeding the average winter rainfall total of 129mm. There is a roughly 50/50 change of an extremely wet winter in Shepparton, with rain of more than 191mm.

The chance of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, the continuing La Niña, warmer than average waters around northern Australia and other localised drivers are likely to be influencing the wetter outlook.

The bureau also provided a snapshot of the climate extremes that caused massive flooding across Queensland and NSW.

In the last week of February, parts of south-east Queensland and north-east NSW had rainfall 2.5 times their monthly average, with some regions recording more than five times their monthly average.

After two years of La Niña conditions, the rain fell on saturated catchments leading to flash and riverine flooding extending from Maryborough in Queensland to Grafton in NSW.

For many areas, this was the wettest week since at least 1900, and some areas of south-east Queensland had their highest flood peaks since 1893.

By Darren Linton

Shepparton News chief correspondent